The Maritime Chessboard: India and China’s Strategic Dance in the Indian Ocean

In January this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi officially added three powerful, Indian-made warships to the Indian Navy. These included a destroyer, a frigate and a submarine, marking a significant boost to the country’s naval strength.

Shortly afterwards, the Indian Navy’s Western Fleet welcomed another Krivak III-type frigate, built in Russia for India. Adding this warship within a month was an important step in strengthening the navy’s power.

Although adding these warships in just a month is an important boost for India’s navy, the country still has a long way to go before reaching its goal of a 200-ship fleet. Ajai Shukla, a former Indian Army officer, told The Diplomat that this was the minimum number of ships needed to protect a region where, as he put it, “there are fewer neighbours than threats”.

Destroyers are large, about 150-160 metres long and 18-20 metres wide, and designed for high-speed combat and air defence. Frigates are smaller, around 130-150 metres long and 14-16 metres wide, mainly used for escort missions and anti-submarine warfare. Destroyers have more firepower, while frigates focus on versatility and endurance.

India’s navy needs a strong fleet to handle its daily missions. It must guard over 7,500 km of coastline, including islands, and protect more than 2 million square kilometres of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Maintaining enough number of warships is crucial for keeping these vast maritime areas safe and secure. The navy’s offshore patrol vessels protect commercial ships from pirates, criminals and terrorists who operate in the unregulated waters near the Horn of Africa.

As the self-declared guardian of the Indian Ocean, the Indian Navy plays a key role in keeping important trade routes open. These routes-from the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Aden to the Malacca Strait-carry over 30% of global trade, making their security crucial for world commerce. The navy needs to develop a security system for the region and help smaller regional navies improve their skills and resources so they can better patrol, and protect, these waters.

India sees its maritime boundaries and security duties as broad-stretching from the African coast in the west to the Southern Ocean and Antarctica in the south-and all the way to Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia in the east. In addition to their economic, policing and diplomatic roles, Indian warships are always training and ready for their main job-fighting wars.

The navy must protect itself from the strong partnership between a rising superpower, China, and Pakistan, which acts as China’s stooge in India’s region. India’s policy of avoiding formal alliances-official military partnerships-adds to its security challenges.

This puts a lot of pressure on India’s fleet of around 160 warships and 20 submarines, especially when compared to China’s navy, which has nearly 500 warships and 60 submarines. If a conflict with India breaks out, China’s navy (PLAN) can count on support from Pakistan’s navy, which is working towards building a fleet of 70 warships and 13 submarines. India would respond in an unequal way by strengthening its strategic forces-military capabilities, such as nuclear weapons-and making an early warning of a nuclear threat.

At the same time, the Indian Navy would need to equip its warships with more traditional firepower, which are regular weapons and equipment used in warfare-such as missiles, torpedoes, guns and other non-nuclear arms that warships rely on during battles. An example can be seen in the navy of the erstwhile Soviet Union. Their Udaloy- and Sovremenny-class destroyers were heavily armed, each carrying 16 powerful missiles, designed for strong attacks.

Lanchester’s Law, a mathematical formula used to predict battle outcomes, suggests that, if China’s navy is kept away and India’s navy focusses all its power on Pakistan’s navy, the latter could be wiped out within 24-48 hours. Knowing that its navy is not as strong as India’s, Pakistan will, possibly, avoid battles in open waters. Fighting there would put it at a big disadvantage since India’s more powerful navy could easily cause serious damage.

Rather than fighting in open waters, Pakistani warships would, possibly, move back to coastal areas. There, they would be safer because Pakistan’s air force could help protect them from attacks. Pakistan’s naval strategy would focus on avoiding direct battles with India’s navy as much as possible. By limiting encounters in terms of both numbers and duration, Pakistan can reduce the risk of heavy losses and minimize India’s advantage in warships and firepower.

India’s challenge would be to figure out how to make Pakistan’s navy engage in battle. If Pakistan’s navy avoids fighting, India’s warships and aircraft would have to move closer to Pakistani harbours to attack, even though these areas are protected by Pakistan’s air force.

To keep its warships safe while moving towards the Pakistani coast, India would need to equip them with a special air defence missile made in partnership with Israel. This missile, called the LR-SAM, is very powerful and can destroy enemy targets from as far as 70 kilometres away.

Pakistan’s choices for naval operations are somewhat limited. Among its long-range maritime patrol (LRMP) aircraft, only the P-3C Orion can stay in the air for up to 16 hours, searching the ocean for ships and other surface targets. But the Orion’s position is revealed as soon as it launches its first anti-ship missile, even if fired from its maximum range of 50 kilometres.

Since the LR-SAM has a range of 70 kilometres, it can hit targets from a greater distance than Pakistan’s Orion, putting the aircraft at a disadvantage right away. This situation does not even consider the presence of an Indian aircraft carrier. If one were there, the Orion would, possibly, be shot down before it could leave the battle zone.

Without effective support from the PLAN, Pakistan’s best option would be to focus on blocking enemy access to the sea. This strategy relies mainly on using submarines and underwater mines. Since regular submarines are slow, even with air-independent propulsion (AIP), they are placed in strategic, narrow areas where enemy ships are sure to pass. These include such key locations as the entrances to the Mumbai harbour, the Gulf of Kutch and the Gulf of Cambay.

If a ship were purposely sunk at the entrance of an important harbor, such as Visakhapatnam or Karwar, or if the entrance were blocked using underwater mines, a few Pakistani ships could trap a large part of India’s naval fleet inside. This would make it difficult for Indian warships to move in and out, creating a major problem for naval operations.

To prevent such a threat, just before the 1971 War between India and Pakistan started, India’s only aircraft carrier at the time, the INS Vikrant, left Visakhapatnam. It carried Alize and Seahawk aircraft on board, ready for action. Yet, India’s navy faces a shortage of submarines, anti-mine ships and anti-submarine vessels on both its eastern and western coasts.

India needs a much bigger submarine fleet to stop Chinese submarines and warships from entering the Indian Ocean. These Chinese vessels travel from their bases in the South China Sea through four key sea routes: the Malacca, Sunda, Lombok and Ombai-Wettar Straits. Strengthening India’s submarine force would help protect its waters and keep a check on China’s naval movements.

To manage such a large operation over long distances, submarines need to stay in touch with their main base on land. They do this using strong and dependable very low frequency (VLF) signals, which help them communicate even when deep underwater. In 2012, the Indian Navy had set up a VLF communication system at the INS Kattabomman in Tamil Nadu to help submarines stay connected with their base.

On October 15, 2024, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh officially opened a new communication station in the Damagundam Reserve Forest, Telangana. This station is important because it helps submarines stay connected with the naval headquarters even when they are deep underwater. It improves communication over long distances, making the Indian Navy more effective in monitoring and protecting the country’s waters.

This communication system is especially important for India’s nuclear-powered submarines. The Indian Navy has two Arihant-class submarines that carry nuclear weapons. To ensure safety and prevent any mistakes, these submarines must receive clear instructions from the command centre on land. Reliable communication helps avoid any risks related to nuclear weapons.

Even though New Delhi is aware that the navy does not have enough warships, it still finds it difficult to keep at least one warship on duty at all times for anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. On the other hand, PLAN deploys three groups of warships each year for anti-piracy missions. Each group includes two powerful destroyers, a team of the Special Forces, at least one submarine and a large supply ship that carries around 20,000 tons of fuel to support the mission.

Unlike India, China showcases its most advanced warships during international missions, making sure the world takes notice. As a result, other countries closely observe China’s naval power with great interest.